Vultures will be circling N17 long before the final day of the season if Roberto De Zerbi cannot revive this desperate Tottenham campaign.
No club is immune. And the alarm is deepening for Spurs after defeat at Sunderland in De Zerbi’s first game, an injury to captain Cristian Romero and a surprise win for Leeds at Manchester United.
Another week passes by and a little deeper into trouble they sink. Up goes the pressure and the new boss admits the doomsday scenario inhibits his players because they are good people who understand the consequences.
Money is, of course, the starting point and the problems cascade from there. If Spurs are relegated after their final game of the season, at home to Everton on May 24, they can expect revenue to be hit by north of £250million in their first year outside the Premier League.
‘There will be a significant drop in revenue if Spurs are relegated,’ said Rob Wilson, football finance expert at the University Campus of Football Business. ‘The drop is quite structured and relatively manageable, particularly across one year because of parachute payments and relegation clauses, which are becoming fairly standard.
‘Even so the loss will create pressure to trim operational costs, especially the wage bill and will feed into transfer strategy.’
Vultures will be circling N17 long before the final day of the season if Roberto De Zerbi cannot revive this desperate Tottenham campaign
No club is immune. And the alarm is deepening for Spurs after defeat at Sunderland in De Zerbi’s first game
The summer transfer window immediately after plummeting through the Premier League’s trapdoor is a maelstrom but some are more used to it than others.
For Spurs, it is almost half a century since relegation. They would not be accustomed to what would lie in wait and some of the factors will be exaggerated because they never expected to be in this position. Players will want out and Spurs will need to sell. But which ones? What will it leave them with? And what can they recruit?
Some might have clauses enabling them to leave after relegation, and others will not expect to slum it in the Championship. Romero, Micky van de Ven and Xavi Simons lead this category as established internationals players in their prime years sure to command interest from clubs in the Champions League.
Prospective buyers will low-ball for weeks aware Spurs will not want disgruntled stars kicking around the building when they return for pre-season.
Loan options on Joao Palhinha from Bayern Munich and Randal Kolo Muani from Paris Saint-Germain will likely be declined.
Inter Milan are interested in goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario and confident of striking a deal for £20m. With two years left on Vicario’s contract, it makes sense for Spurs to cash in. Full back Pedro Porro is another moving into the final two years of his contract and sure to attract interest.
Richarlison has one year on his deal and is a target for Flamengo, but Spurs have been prepared to listen to offers for the Brazilian in recent windows without attracting an acceptable offer.
As with Yves Bissouma, who is out of contract in June. Spurs have tried without success to sell him for two windows and had been planning to trigger a one-year extension to preserve his value and ensure a fee, which they might reassess if relegated.
Pedro Porro and Guglielmo Vicario could be two of the big names to leave Spurs if they go down
Would anyone be surprised if Romero, Micky van de Ven (centre) and Xavi Simons (top) departed for Champions League clubs in the summer?
Dejan Kulusevski and James Maddison will be into the final two years of their deals but neither have played this season after serious injuries so their value is diminished.
Spurs will find the players they are most desperate to keep are in the greatest demand. That’s just the way it works. They would love to build a team for the future around Archie Gray and Lucas Bergvall, both 20, and Luka Vuskovic, 19.
But Liverpool and Bayern Munich have eyes on Gray. Chelsea and Aston Villa on Bergvall. Barcelona and Bayern admire Vuskovic who is not keen to return to Spurs after a successful loan at Hamburg. The list of suitors for these three will only increase if they go down.
Spurs will have their resolve tested if they are in the Championship because none of their players want to play second-tier football. They will think they are elite players with international careers, image rights and commercial deals to protect. Agents will be in overdrive.
After all of this, what will be the mood of those left behind, those unsold and demotivated because they think they belong in the Premier League but are gearing up for a season in the EFL less than a month after the World Cup ends?
Moreover, who will guide Spurs through this minefield? The new Lewis family regime led by chief executive Vinai Venkatesham and sporting director Johan Lange have hardly inspired confidence. It is difficult to imagine them in the same roles if they preside over the club’s first relegation since 1977.
The search is already on for a new sporting director. Spurs are currently exploring their options, including Sebastian Kehl, who stepped down from the same role at Borussia Dortmund in March and Tiago Pinto, Bournemouth’s president of football operations. If Lange survives the summer, it is expected to be in a less crucial role working under the new appointment, rather than as a joint sporting director – as he was with Fabio Paratici, who left in February.
The club’s executive tier requires urgent strengthening not only to improve the way the first team operates but also across the women’s team and the academy.
Archie Gray (left) and Lucas Bergvall (second right) were meant to be two cornerstones of the next great Spurs team, but the vultures are already circling around the young stars
Luka Vuskovic, currently on loan at Hamburg, is another young talent that Spurs will have to fend off offers for if they cannot stay up
De Zerbi will be a powerful voice and while there are clear dangers when a head coach holds any sway in the appointment of a sporting director, it makes sense for their vision to be aligned.
For the next month, though, Spurs will be spinning two recruitment plans in accordance with two different budgets, depending on survival. Go down, and there will be limitations to De Zerbi’s rebuilding operation. Expenditure will hinge upon outgoings and recruitment will need to be adjusted accordingly.
De Zerbi, on his five-year deal, talks of taking Spurs to the top of the Premier League but cannot sign players to do that as a Championship club. A temporary shift of focus would be required. Forget fanciful notions of competing with Liverpool to sign Yan Diomande from Leipzig or Maghnes Akliouche from Monaco.
Spurs are in a strong position to sign Andy Robertson on a free at the end of his Liverpool contract. Having identified a lack of maturity in the dressing room, they tried to advance a deal for the 32-year-old left back in January only to hit a snag.
Robertson would be a perfect captain to lead a new era even if they are relegated. But he can expect offers from the Premier League, so does the deal hold true for the Championship? If not, they could offer Ben Davies, also 32 and out of contract in June, a new deal.
De Zerbi will assess the emerging talent currently out on loan, chief among which is centre half Vuskovic and winger Mikey Moore, 18, who has impressed in the second half of the season at Rangers.
Manor Solomon, on loan at Fiorentina but under contract at Spurs until 2028, played for De Zerbi at Shakhtar Donetsk and is effective in the Championship, where he scored 10 for champions Leeds last season. Solomon is only 26 could tide them over on the right wing until Wilson Odobert is back fit.
Among others, Ashley Phillips, 20, has performed well on loan at Stoke this season.
Mikey Moore, 18, has impressed in the second half of his season-long loan at Rangers
Spurs are in pole position to sign Andy Robertson (right) this summer, but again – can they really convince him to join a Championship club?
Promotion straight back to the Premier League is never guaranteed – Sunderland spent eight years out of the top flight, including four in League One
If relegation comes with a silver lining, it is a chance to blood select youngsters in a less harsh environment in the hope they take the chance and mature into first-teamers.
This though must be offset against the urgency to bounce back up. Spurs, as Wilson says, might carry the financial clout to ride a £250m revenue drop for one year, but they cannot afford to get stuck for any longer outside the Premier League with a stadium debt to repay. Aston Villa took three years to return when they were relegated in 2016. For Sunderland it was eight years, four of which were spent in the third tier, a division Spurs have never played in.
It is vital for Spurs to hold onto some Premier League quality if they go down. Dominic Solanke and Djed Spence both know what it takes to win promotion from the Championship. They can attest to others there is life outside the Premier League. The Championship is vibrant, brilliantly competitive, with atmospheric grounds often packed to capacity.
The EFL would welcome Spurs with open arms and the match-going fans might find plenty to like about it. But the commercial department will be less keen. Try filling those tables at a corporate palace built for the Champions League when Lincoln City come to town. The Championship is no place for a club with aspirations to win the Premier League title.
The best way out of this is of course to stay up. Six games remain in 36 days, starting with a reunion for De Zerbi against Brighton on Saturday. Look out for the vultures.
