Arsenal may have lost the battle in Manchester at the weekend, but the stats gurus at Opta still reckon Mikel Arteta‘s men will win the war.
Manchester City narrowed Arsenal’s lead to just three points with their 2-1 victory at the Etihad on Sunday, with Rayan Cherki and Erling Haaland ensuring Pep Guardiola‘s side remain firmly in the hunt for a seventh title in nine years.
Despite the win – and celebrations that suggested City believe momentum has swung in their favour – the Opta supercomputer continues to say otherwise.
Prior to kick-off, Arsenal were overwhelming favourites to win the title at 85.2 per cent, compared with City’s 14.8 per cent.
The result does tighten things up, but Opta still have the Gunners in the driving seat, with a 73 per cent chance of lifting their first title in 22 years, while City’s chances have risen to 27 per cent.
This is largely because, although City have a game in hand, their remaining fixtures are considered tougher than Arsenal’s.
Arsenal may have lost the battle in Manchester at the weekend, but the stats gurus at Opta still reckon Mikel Arteta’s men will win the war
Even if both sides win all their remaining games, Arsenal could still edge the title on goal difference, potentially benefiting from their more favourable run-in
Arsenal’s final five matches are all against sides currently in the bottom half of the Premier League table, while City must face Everton, Bournemouth and Aston Villa – all of whom are pushing for European football next season.
Even if both sides win all their remaining games, Arsenal could still edge the title on goal difference, potentially benefiting from their more favourable run-in.
This is the view of Arsenal legend Lauren, who gave his predictions to Daily Mail Sport while speaking on behalf of Casino Wizard.
The 49-year-old former right-back, who won two Premier League titles with the Gunners – including the 2003-04 campaign as part of the ‘Invincibles’ – expects Arsenal to win all their remaining fixtures, while City will drop points against Everton and Aston Villa.
Of the Toffees, Lauren said: ‘This is City’s toughest test and I think they will be frustrated.’
As for their last game of the season against Villa, Lauren predicted the final result will be a draw, adding: ‘Aston Villa are a dangerous team with Champions League aspirations and they can frustrate City.’
While Arsenal fans may still have reason for optimism despite their difficult weekend, the mood on the other side of north London is growing increasingly bleak.
Tottenham’s 2-2 draw with Brighton at the weekend leaves them stuck in the relegation zone, with Opta predicting that they now have a 56.58 per cent chance of dropping into the Championship at the end of the season.
That figure has risen significantly over the weekend – up from 49.1 per cent – following those agonising dropped points against the Seagulls in the dying minutes on Saturday.
Nottingham Forest’s 4-1 victory over Burnley has only compounded Tottenham’s problems, while a win for West Ham against Crystal Palace on Monday evening could leave Roberto De Zerbi’s side in an even more precarious position.
Among their five remaining fixtures, Tottenham still have to travel to Villa Park and Stamford Bridge before the season’s end.
